New Street Research analysts believe Charter Communications likely will be successful in its efforts to acquire Time Warner Cable and Bright House Networks, unlike Comcast in its failed attempt to purchase TWC. The analysts at the investment research firm give Charter's deal for TWC and Bright House an 80 percent to 85 percent chance of being completed "with conditions greater than Charter has currently offered but not so great as to affect the material prospects for the post-transaction company," they wrote in a recent note to investors.
Comments flowed in to the FCC this week regarding the proposed transaction, with Dish Network and others standing in staunch opposition to the transaction. Others, like AT&T, voiced concerns about the deal but did not come out specifically against it.
"While a number of parties raised the issue of coordinated effects, we don't think the coordinated effects argument will lead to significant difficulties for the deal," the New Street analysts said. "First, while true that there are a number of things Comcast and Charter could do together that would violate antitrust laws, the remedy lies in an enforcement action, not blocking the deal. Second, all the arguments about the danger of two carriers having a large percentage of the cable industry ignore that that is already true with Comcast and Time-Warner, yet there is no evidence that those parties conspired in ways that the opponents now argue is inevitable if Charter buys Time-Warner. We do think, however, that the argument has some resonance with decision makers and therefore, the government may seek some prophylactic conditions to prevent coordinated actions on some issues."