Take that, cool, well-adjusted, normal-armed, DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV) subscriber Rob Lowe: Media analyst Craig Moffett predicts that starting this year, cable will reverse a decade-long trend of losing video market share to satellite. This reversal will begin this year, the analyst says, with the leading cable companies narrowing their video subscriber losses to a predicted 183,000 from 757,000 in 2014.
Concurrently, DirecTV and Dish Network (NASDAQ: DISH), Moffett speculates, will see their subscriber losses grow from 53,000 in 2014 to 112,000 in 2015.
By 2018, the top MSOs will have gained 358,000 video subs for the year, while satellite will be in negative territory at 285,000, he predicts.
Don't, however, take Moffett's viewpoint as necessarily being bullish about the cable industry.
He refers to pending Title II Internet regulation as an "elephant" that could render untold damage to the bottom lines of cable companies.
And while he views OTT services including Dish's Sling TV as not ready to "set the world on fire," Moffett now labels the migration of millennial consumers away from pay-TV as a serious long-term threat.
Oh, and in the same report, he downgraded the probability of Comcast's (NASDAQ: CMCSA) takeover of Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) gaining approval from the FCC from 80 percent to 70 percent.
For more:
- see this MoffettNathanson report (sub. req.)
Related links:
Verizon adds 116K video subs in Q4, up 26%
Cord-cutting accelerates as pay-TV sub losses double to 179K
Satellite and telco growth 'hit the wall' in Q3, analyst notes
DirecTV loses 28K subscribers in Q3 as cord-cutting fears again take hold
Dish loses 12K TV subscribers, misses Wall Street forecasts
Shammo: Verizon will increase FiOS video rates in Q4 to offset rise in content costs
AT&T adds 216K U-verse TV subscribers, passes 6M mark