Media investment analysts are throwing cold water on Comcast’s chances of poaching 21st Century Fox assets from Disney.
After having an all stock bid rejected by Fox in December, Comcast is reportedly lining up as much as $60 billion in a bridge loan to render to re-approach the media company with an all-cash offer.
The deal is “not gonna happen,” Mediatech Capital Partners Porter Bibb told CNBC anchors this morning. “[Comcast] has all the content they need with NBCU and you guys.”
For one, Bibb believes that Fox’s biggest shareholder, Rupert Murdoch, would prefer the lack of tax complications that go with an all-stock deal. He also believes that Murdoch covets the opportunity to become a major Disney shareholder.
Separately but related, Bibb also believes that Comcast $30 billion bid to also seize a 61% stake in U.K. satellite TV operator Sky Plc. will eventually be undermined by Disney. Fox originally bid for the majority share in Sky it doesn’t already own with plans to turn it around and sell it to Disney.
New Street analyst Jonathan Chaplin concurred with Bibb.
“We still think Comcast will face a stiff fight for Fox and Sky and will likely end up with neither” Chaplin said. “If they acquire both, they may have to separate the Cable and Content businesses, which would be the best of all possible outcomes. If they acquire both and remain integrated, it would change our thesis (Cable would be less than 50% of the value); however, it would be hard not to be excited about a phenomenal Cable asset coupled with a global content powerhouse, trading at 9x FCF."
Comcast filed for review by European regulators yesterday.