IPTV forecasters diverge

IPTV will generate big bucks, drive interactive services and have lethargic take-rates, depending on whose research is cited. iSuppli, a market research firm out of El Segundo, Calif., sees the IPTV market hitting $5.79 billion in just four years, a 14-fold increase from $422.7 million in 2006. Just what was included in that calculation was not clear, because last August, iSuppli predicted the IPTV subscriber base would generate $27 billion in 2010. (iSuppli did not respond to Fierce queries by press time.)

The firm also foresaw a worldwide IPTV sub base of 63 million by 2010, up from 2.4 million in 2005--a "stunning" compound annual growth rate of more than 92 percent, it said.

Research from SNL Kagan in Monterey, Calif., said au contraire, at least from the telcoTV perspective. Kagan's "Telco TV Outlook" predicts "modest" rates on telco video services through 2011, given the cost and complexity of laying thousands of miles of fiber.

Vendors will nonetheless fare well, according to Infonetics Research of Campbell, Calif., which anticipates two- to threefold growth in that segment between 2006 and 2010. Set-tops will be a big piece of that growth as IPTV services actually reach homes.

Then Pyramid Research in Cambridge, Mass., broke out anticipated revenues from video-on-demand, a model the company considers ideal for IPTV. Globally, Pyramid said VOD over IPTV would generate $4.7 billion in 2012, equating 18 percent of total IPTV revenues, and up from $121 million in 2006.

For more:
- Lightwave covers the iSuppli report
- The Kagan report is covered by eMediawire here

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