Shipments of HDR TV sets will surpass 4K TV shipments by 2020, according to ABI Research.
The firm is forecasting that HDR TV shipments will grow at a 41% CAGR and reach 245 million units in 2022.
“As evident with Sony’s recent announcement to include HDR in all its new TV sets, the next-generation TV technology will soon be a prominent feature in many UltraHD TV sets,” said Khin Sandi Lynn, industry analyst at ABI Research, in a statement. “While some less expensive sets will not yet support the technology, high-end TV manufacturers recognize the value that HDR functionality brings to the viewing experience.”
IHS Markit also predicted growth for HDR shipments, but forecasts that many of those sets won’t be fully equipped to deliver HDR quality images. By 2020, almost all of the 112 million 4K TVs shipped worldwide will be compatible with HDR, but only 30% will have “true HDR performance capabilities.”
While vendors like LG, Samsung and Sony plan to build HDR into their UltraHD TV sets, broadcasters are holding back because of the somewhat fragmented standards environment, according to ABI Research, which called HDR10 the baseline industry norm but noted that Dolby Vision offers more premium features.
Along with HDR10 and Dolby Vision, there are other HDR standards including HLG, a BBC-developed standard that simplifies the metadata process, and Advanced HDR, a standard that normalizes standards including HDR10, PQ and SDR for backend devices. And now Amazon and Samsung have teamed for yet another HDR standard.
“Amazon and Samsung recently announced the development of HDR10+, a version of the HDR10 standard that uses Dynamic Tone Mapping to produce enhanced contrast and colors,” said Sam Rosen, managing director and vice president at ABI Research, in a statement. “At this point, this standard does not have a robust industry coalition to foster adoption and serves to further confuse the market.”
With long-tail growth still projected for 4K and HDR sets, the 8K TV standard is already beginning to make inroads toward consumer adoption. But ABI Research said that 8K adoption will likely be sparked by Japan’s plans to offer the 2020 Olympics in the standard, so global adoption of the standard is still years off.
“8K TV sets will enter the market in small quantities in 2020 but mainly in Japan and possibly South Korea, areas in which broadcasters are now working toward 8K broadcast,” said Lynn. “In the meantime, it will remain UltraHD HDR TV sets that dominate the overall market.”