Another 3B global SVOD subs still up for grabs: analyst

Ampere outlined some factors that will impact different markets’ ability to reach higher SVOD stacking ceilings. (Getty Images)

Ampere Analysis suggests that there is room for three billion additional streaming subscriptions across the world’s largest media markets.

The firm’s latest research reached across 20 international markets – USA, Canada, Argentina, UK, Denmark, Norway, Australia, Netherlands, Poland, France, Germany, Japan, Sweden, Italy, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, China, India and Russia – to determine approximately how many would-be SVOD subscriptions are still out there. The number suggests many more years of growth for Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+ and other streaming services available globally.

“Even as we begin to see growth in SVoD services in emerging markets, our analysis shows that opportunity for expansion is actually still a very solid proposition in established territories. As cord-cutting continues, the US stacking ceiling is theoretically as high as eight services per average household, while in developing markets like Brazil it is far lower – at just 1.5,” said Daniel Gadher, research manager at Ampere Analysis, in a statement.

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However, Ampere warned some territories are moving toward a “stacking ceiling” and consumers could soon reach the limit of subscription services they’re wiling to pay for. The firm estimates that the ceiling for SVOD services per household is highest in the U.S., at about eight. In Europe, it’s between two to five services per household but Ampere said that “market realities will mean that few territories are likely to see stacking numbers reach these heights.”

Ampere outlined some factors that will impact different markets’ ability to reach higher SVOD stacking ceilings. With live sports back and the majority of important sports rights still within the pay TV ecosystem, pay TV services will remain relevant and will take up significant portions of average household TV budgets.

“To make the most of this capacity, OTT players first need to demonstrate that they are a viable replacement for existing paid-for TV services. This process is ongoing in the US and Canada, but elsewhere in the world, pay TV has remained resilient. But as US studio content increasingly moves to the online world, the opportunity for new players to take a share of consumer entertainment spending, even in already busy markets, improves,” said Gadher.