DirecTV Now, Sling TV and other vMVPDs should brace for slower growth, analyst says

TV watching
Another metric that UBS tracks to estimate vMVPD subscriber growth is app downloads, and the firm found that YouTube TV was seeing more momentum after capturing 42% of streaming TV app downloads during the most recent quarter. (Pinho/Unsplash)

DirecTV Now and Sling TV have already seen their subscriber growth stall or reverse in recent quarters and now the virtual MVPD space in general could be facing a slowdown.

The new UBS Evidence Lab Streaming TV App Monitor estimates that streaming TV subscribers totaled 8.6 million overall, or approximately 9% of total video subscribers. By 2022, the firm expects streaming TV subscribers will make up about 20% of the total video market.

“While growth in streaming TV has helped stabilize video market declines in recent years, we expect streaming TV growth to slow with the recent price increases and a greater focus on profitability. Along with worsening traditional losses, we expect total video subs to fall 3.4% in 2Q, accelerating from -2.3% in 1Q and +0.2% this time last year,” wrote UBS analyst John Hodulik in a research note.

FREE DAILY NEWSLETTER

Like this story? Subscribe to FierceVideo!

The Video industry is an ever-changing world where big ideas come along daily. Cable, Media and Entertainment, Telco, and Tech companies rely on FierceVideo for the latest news, trends, and analysis on video creation and distribution, OTT delivery technologies, content licensing, and advertising strategies. Sign up today to get news and updates delivered to your inbox and read on the go.

RELATED: AVOD could lead to consumers skipping MVPDs and vMVPDs alike

UBS is basing its predictions for slower vMVPD subscriber growth on its streaming TV spend tracker data, which follows credit card transactions. The firm’s data displayed decelerating growth in brand incidence, which UBS uses as a proxy for predicting subscriber growth. For YouTube TV, DirecTV Now, Sling TV, FuboTV and Philo, the company said brand incidence totaled 20%, down from 28% in the previous quarter. But, the average amount spent per transaction increased for all the major vMVPDs.

Another metric that UBS tracks to estimate vMVPD subscriber growth is app downloads, and the firm found that YouTube TV was seeing more momentum after capturing 42% of streaming TV app downloads during the most recent quarter. DirecTV Now’s download share stayed stable amid price increases and promotional pricing pullback, Sling TV’s share held steady and AT&T’s Watch TV jumped from 7% to 9%. PlayStation Vue’s downloads share fell the furthest, from 9% last quarter to 3%.

Suggested Articles

Amobee is launching a data marketplace for connected TV advertising to provide brands and agencies with access to data for activation across connected TV and…

When Charter and Disney earlier this week announced their new carriage agreement, they included news about cooperatively working against video piracy, which…

Cord cutters who opt for streaming video services instead of traditional pay TV will inevitably increase their broadband consumption. But some new research…