Disney+ has been rapidly growing its subscriber base since launching in November 2019 and one analyst believes the service will take the top spot within the next five years.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said that based on December 2020 results, his firm expects that the number of subscribers to Disney+ (294 million) will overtake the Netflix total (286 million) in 2026.
Disney+ is closing in on 100 million subscribers after ending the most recent quarter with 94.9 million. A significant portion of those subscribers are from the Disney+ Hotstar service available in India and Indonesia.
By 2026, Digital TV Research believes that Disney+ will only have more subscribers than Netflix in India, where it expects 98 million Disney+ Hotstar subscribers versus 13 million for Netflix.
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“Disney+ Hotstar will roll out to 13 Asian countries by 2026. These countries will supply 108 million (37%) of the global Disney+ subscriber total, but only $2.62 billion (13%) of the platform’s revenues by 2026,” said Murray in a statement. Hotstar subscribers pay less than a third of the monthly subscription fee of their U.S. counterpart.”
During Disney’s most recent quarter, average revenue per user for Disney+ decreased from $5.56 to $4.03 due to the launch of Disney+ Hotstar. Still, the company’s direct-to-consumer segment revenues for the quarter increased 73% to $3.5 billion and operating loss decreased from $1.1 billion to $466 million.
“We believe the strategic actions we’re taking to transform our Company will fuel our growth and enhance shareholder value, as demonstrated by the incredible strides we’ve made in our DTC business, reaching more than 146 million total paid subscriptions across our streaming services at the end of the quarter,” said Disney CEO Bob Chapek in a statement. “We’re confident that, with our robust pipeline of exceptional, high-quality content and the upcoming launch of our new Star-branded international general entertainment offering, we are well-positioned to achieve even greater success going forward.”
Despite the forecasted Disney+ subscriber win over Netflix, Digital TV Research predicts global revenues for Disney+ will be $20.76 billion by 2026 – approximately half of Netflix’s $39.52 billion.